Methodology
Every recommendation should be reproducible.
A published result is tied to a versioned source snapshot, normalized inputs, launch MSRP, a calculation version, and a dated publication snapshot.
Published odds first
Both an official manufacturer checklist and odds sheet are required. One hit in X packs costs X × MSRP ÷ packs per box. One hit in X boxes costs X × MSRP.
Launch MSRP only
Expected spend uses the manufacturer’s launch box price (MSRP). Resale prices, tax, and shipping do not change the benchmark, so when a format sells out, your real cost scales with what you pay. Missing official price evidence withholds the benchmark.
Output-specific eligibility
An official checklist is mandatory; a matched size is not needed for any-hit costs. Specific-card, player, and production metrics stay hidden until their required inputs are approved.
Explicit player mappings
Named-player calculations use confirmed checklist membership and reviewed mappings for each variant. Specific-card estimates additionally assume equal frequency within that checklist.
Independent-pack confidence
Packs for a target confidence use ceil(log(1 − target) / log(1 − per-pack probability)). Results assume independent packs.
Any autograph
Autographs per box adds every autograph chase’s rate in a format: packs per box ÷ X for each 1-in-X-packs row. Average per auto is MSRP ÷ autographs per box. The chance of at least one autograph in N boxes is 1 − (1 − p)^(packs per box × N), where p is autographs per box ÷ packs per box and packs are independent. Chances of 99.5% or more read “>99%”, never 100%.
Separate pulls only
The autograph sum must count each card once. It appears only when every autograph chase has a reviewed checklist assignment and no checklist group is counted by both a family total and its variants. Otherwise the page withholds it and features the lowest-cost single autograph chase. A format without autograph odds reads “No autograph odds”, not zero.
Chase cards
Each chase card names one chase: the cheapest auto chase, single parallel, and single insert. It says “Only in” when one format carries the chase, otherwise its lowest-cost format, and notes ties. Costs are averages per hit at launch MSRP. Player Chase shows each player’s odds and cost by box.
Readable source labels
Displayed chase names use title case, retaining abbreviations, known brand spellings, ordinals, and serial numbers. Original manufacturer names remain preserved in the source records for auditing.
Important limits
Expected cost is a long-run average, not a guaranteed spending limit. Published odds may be rounded. Autograph chances use pack odds and do not include any per-box guarantee a manufacturer advertises. Inferred production is not an official print run. Uniform checklist distribution can miss short prints. Missing inputs suppress affected outputs rather than substituting a guess.