Calculator
Was that pull actually lucky?
Enter published pack odds and the observed rip. RipMetric calculates the binomial probability of seeing that many hits or more.
Example scenarios
Enter the published odds and observed rip to see the exact upper-tail probability.
Model boundary
The model treats packs as independent draws with p = 1 / published denominator. Manufacturer collation can violate independence, so this reports probability under random sampling—not evidence about intent or pack handling.